Oil from the BP spill could spread from the Gulf of Mexico into the Atlantic and up the East Coast much quicker than many might have expected, reaching eastern Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina by October.
A study by researchers at the University of Hawaii's School of Ocean and Earth Science used various computer models to develop an animated track of oil from the Deepwater Horizon gusher -- which began April 20 -- over the course of a year.
The study follows the dispersal of millions of "buoyant particles," using flow data from high-resolution ocean model simulation. The model does not incorporate such effects as oil coagulation, formation of tar balls or chemical and microbial degradation.
Results were surprising even to researchers. After getting swept up by the Loop Current, the oil rounds Florida and stays reasonably close to the coast along the southeastern states. But by next April (see below image) it has traveled via the Florida Current and Gulf Stream as far north as Virginia before arcing out as as an unsightly but highly-diluted mass in the direction of Europe.According to the simulation, a surprisingly high 20% of the particles make it into the Atlantic.
Principal researchers Axel Timmermann and Fabian Schloesser stress that the intent of the study was to show what might happen, not what will in fact happen. It's hoped the study will help guide research and mitigation efforts.
For example, the narrow Straits of Florida force the Florida Current into a thin channel, "creating a tight bottleneck for the spreading of oil into the Atlantic," states a University of Hawaii press release.
"As
the animation suggests, a filtering system in the narrowest spot of the
Florida Current could mitigate the spreading of the oil film into the
North Atlantic."In a story on the Consortium for Ocean Leadership website, Timmermann further explains: "If a decision was made to prevent or mitigate the spreading of the spill into the Atlantic, the narrow and deep section of the Florida Strait near West Palm Beach and Grand Bahama may be a good location to put efforts and resources."
The scientist added: "Controlling a section of about 30 miles is a lot different from cleaning up hundreds of miles of coastlines in eastern Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas."
The research was supported by the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), NASA and NOAA through their sponsorship of the International Pacific Research Center in the School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology at the University of Hawaii at Manoa.
-- Pete Thomas
Editor's note: A version of this post also appears on the GrindTV.com outdoors blog
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